INDIA-USA RELATIONS: SYMBIOTIC OR OPPORTUNISTIC?
CA. Sagar Mitkary
Treasurer
M. 9158883851
A lot is said and discussed on whether India and United States of America (USA) are “Natural Allies” or not. Especially, this term is often questioned due to the fact that India has traditionally been a Russia’s most trust-worthy friend, and vice-versa. Then, USA-Pakistan relations have been very deep, especially till the time Osama Bin Laden was eliminated in Pak’s backyard at Abbottabad. However, there is a very strong lobby inside White-House and Pentagon which is ready to bet on Pakistan inspite of Abbottabad. But, systematic and hegemonic growth of China in recent past, especially in last 15 years has changed the geopolitics at large.
India has troubled history with its neibougher China ever since the Panchsheel pact failed and China pushed India for a month long war in October-November 1962. However, it is also true that, during last 40 years or so, not a single bullet has been fired by either side along the Line of Actual Control. It is pertinent to note that, size of economy of both countries till 1980 was similar but China took exponential leap in its economic growth ever since world engaged in more trade and economics with their closed economy, on their terms.
China acted smartly and deployed their economic surplus generated in building up their defences and their offensive capabilities. While they were becoming the manufacturing hub of the whole world, they were able to absorb new technologies and steal some as well. End result: China achieved double digit growth for more than 15 years and today is second largest economy of the world and say at 60-70% of size of USA economy. What is intriguing is that, USA has its trade commitment with China which is very complicated.
When we assess United States of America, a pattern is reflected in their foreign policy or geopolitical play. They would not want a power which can challenge their Economic and Military might. To be able to achieve their goal, they resort to either create internal disturbances in country or create a parallel powerhouse which engages the potential threat and the resources are diverted, focus is diverted so that USA keeps their number one position.
To put the things in perspective, when Russia-India relations were shaping up, USA cultivated Pakistan to keep India (& Russia to some extent) busy on Pakistan border. Now that China is becoming a threat to USA, they need a parallel powerhouse which can contain China to some extent. There are only 2 options before them, either push Russia to stand up against China or Motivate India to Stand-Up against the Chinese might. Russia won’t fall into USA tricks as long as they don’t forget the 1991 collapse of erstwhile Soviet Union and Putin is in Power. That leaves only one Option: India.
Post 1963, the US policy towards India has been more or less same, irrespective of whether there was republican or democrat president in office. And also, Post 1998, India has been categorical in all their official engagements with USA diplomats that India will take all decisions which correspond to their interests and it will not follow blindly on geopolitical matters. It is also visible from various Defence Imports India has made from USA, viz. Apache and Chinook contracts along with C-17 and C-130 transport aircrafts contract. While India contracted these from USA, it has also contracted for S-400 Defence systems from Russia which is paramount for air defences. This is intact balancing of relations with one’s oldest and best friend and with new business friend.
Contracts lead us to look trade and economics aspects of countries. While USA, India both have trade with China, it is important to note that size of USA-China trade is few times more than what India-China trade in volumes is. It is nobody’s guess that, Material Interests will be paramount for any country before they take side in case of conflict. Therefore, it will be asking too much for USA to stand with India, in case a major conflict is seen on LAC with China.
So, what are our options? As much as USA needs India, India too require USA to achieve its aspirations. Yes, the whole relations should be non-compromising on our stands. India should be able to extract more from USA in terms of Transfer of Technologies and its absorption soon enough and build its economic base. This will also mean certain trade concessions to USA, which will have to be given. We already have positive example of opening up of our economy in 1991 and its effects. While we get to absorb the technologies, we should concentrate on indigenisation and R&D by deploying surplus and stand up on our own.
India USA relations therefore will be opportunistic rather than symbiotic because of its traditional trust deficit and earlier relations with respective enemies. So, if Pakistan implodes and is disintegrated, most of worries India has, against USA will subsidise and India may be willing to engage more with USA while keeping Russians in good mood.
CA. Sagar Mitkary